Citizen Action Monitor

Global energy crunch, exacerbated by supply chain shocks, could spark a major economic shock

Analyst Chis Martenson blames central bankers’ monetary policies and bumbling government mismanagement of COVID pandemic for coming “Dark Winter.” –

No 2786 by fw, October 9, 2021—

Chris Martenson

“While COVID-19 has occupied a lot of our intellectual and emotional energy over the past year and a half, energy and material shortfalls are far more likely to seriously impact your life. I alerted this channel to the energy issues last June. I stand by the urgency of those messages even more now. An energy crisis is roiling across the UK and Europe on the cusp of winter, and the rest of the world is on the horizon. It’s already being felt in the UK, Europe, China, Russia, and the U.S. In the UK, the media is chalking up the energy crisis to consumer panic buying and truck driver shortages, but this blames everyday citizens for what is actually a much deeper structural problem and bungling executed by government policies. A more accurate explanation acknowledges the origins of the current energy crisis in a predictable outcome of the failure to invest in the production of oil and supply stability during the COVID-19 mismanagement and shutdowns. While the governing elite will have you believe the crisis is as “transitory” as the inflation they themselves create through central bankers’ monetary policies, it would be foolish to take them at their word. A major economic shock is guaranteed at this point in the story – one that will disproportionately impact the middle and lower classes.”Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity

Chris Martenson, PhD (Duke) in neurotoxicology, MBA (Cornell), is an economic researcher and futurist, specializing in energy and resource depletion, and co-founder of, and writer for, his website PeakProsperity.com.

Below is my repost of Chris Martenson’s September 28, 2021, 34-minute videorecorded talk titled “The energy crunch is going to impact you and your family”, in which he lays out his evidence to support his admittedly bleak forecast of what’s coming. The above excerpt is drawn from the Show More/Show Less summary, which appears just below the video.

My repost is organized in three sections:

Section 1/ An embedded video of Martenson’s talk; below the recording is a Chronological Index to the video to facilitate selection of and access to topics of particular interest. Just click on the hyperlinked time marker to go close to but not always right at the start of the chosen clip.

Section 2/ A repost of the Show More/Show Less summary which appears just below the video.

Section 3/ My transcripts of the Introduction, the Five Conclusions of the talk, and a Preview of Part 2 of his two-part report

I chose to read Sections 2 and 3 before watching the video.

Alternatively, to watch the video, read the Show More/Show Less note, and access the Chronological Index on Martenson’s You Tube site, click on the following linked title.

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The energy crunch is going to impact you and your family by Dr. Chris Martenson, You Tube/Peak Energy, September 28, 2021 (34:34 min) |132,485 views, 1,610 comments

Section 1 – The video and chronological index

Chronological Index:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Dark Winter – A Global Energy Crisis Spreads

02:43 – Reason: Driver Shortage?

04:23 – Update | Energy

05:13 – Oil Shock III

07:02 – Not A Refining Issue

09:50 – Energy Costs in Europe Spiking

10:42 – IAE Calls on Russia

12:47 – China’s Energy Shortage

14:47 – Silicon Metal Shortage Follows China Energy Crunch

15:35 – Uh Oh. More Supply Chain Issues

17:11 – The US Is Affected Too

29:22 – Conclusions

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Section 2Show More/Show Less description below the video:

The policy responses to Covid have been awful, but those failures are utterly dwarfed by the energy and supply chain policy inactions that are bringing us into a very dark winter.

While COVID-19 has occupied a lot of our intellectual and emotional energy over the past year and a half, energy and material shortfalls are far more likely to seriously impact your life. I alerted this channel to the energy issues last June. I stand by the urgency of those messages even more now.

An energy crisis is roiling across the UK and Europe on the cusp of winter, and the rest of the world is on the horizon. It’s already being felt in the UK, Europe, China, Russia, and the U.S.

In the UK, the media is chalking up the energy crisis to consumer panic buying and truck driver shortages, but this blames everyday citizens for what is actually a much deeper structural problem and bungling executed by government policies. A more accurate explanation acknowledges the origins of the current energy crisis in a predictable outcome of the failure to invest in the production of oil and supply stability during the COVID-19 mismanagement and shutdowns.

While the governing elite will have you believe the crisis is as “transitory” as the inflation they themselves create through central bankers’ monetary policies, it would be foolish to take them at their word. A major economic shock is guaranteed at this point in the story – one that will disproportionately impact the middle and lower classes.

Watch this video to have your eyes opened to the reality that “energy is everything.”

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Section 3My transcripts of the Introduction, the Five Conclusions of the talk, and a Preview of Part 2

There’s a really big energy crisis coming and you need to know about it.

00:00 – Introduction — Hello everyone. Dr. Chris Martenson here with another update for you. I’m going to depart a little bit from my COVID coverage tonight, in fact, maybe a lot, because while we’re all spending a lot of time worried about COVID, talking about it – there’s a lot of really big issues there – there’s something even larger brewing right now that has the chance of impacting your life for more seriously than COVID has – statistically speaking.

I’m talking about, now, an energy crisis that is sweeping Europe, the United States, China – it’s kind of a global thing. What’s going on? Why does it have such a big impact?

Let’s go there and look at it. I’m calling this one, “A Dark Winter: A Global Energy Crisis Spreads.” Let’s start here. Maybe you’ve heard about this – that Britain put the army on standby after 90% of their petrol stations ran out of fuel – 90% ran out of fuel, due to panic buying. That’s what they’re blaming it on, in a post-Brexit shortage of tanker drivers.

It’s panic buying and tanker drivers. But certainly not just the fact that there’s an energy shortage in general due to bumbling mismanagement of COVID and the economic response thereto. So, this is COVID related, but this is the economic impact. Remember I always said there were three things that we’re going to need to balance out, and one of them is not swamping your hospitals, another one is getting the R* next to zero.

But the third one [conclusion] was making sure that you didn’t crush your economy, because when you crush your economy you actually can ruin more lives leading to more suicides, despair, broken dreams – things that really have lasting impacts on people’s lives. So, making sure the economy was always balanced will add [to] my concerns. [*R — The R number is a way of rating coronavirus or any disease’s ability to spread. R is the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average].

So, that’s where we are. We’re in like perpetual lockdown and it’s having an impact. This is one of the impacts here. And they’re talking about how people have lined up for fuel for days. This is just like the bad old days of the 1970s. and this is something we really need to look at.

So, what’s happening? The Financial Times is talking about Boris Johnson prepares to call in the army as panic buying drains UK petrol pumps. Here’s how they’re putting this down. They say:

“Boris Johnson is preparing to draft hundreds of soldiers to tackle the UK’s fuel crisis as at least half of petrol stations outside the motorway network have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying.”

Now why would they engage in panic buying? Probably because a government minister told them NOT to panic. That’s usually a good time to panic.

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29:22 – Five Conclusions

1/ There’s a global energy crunch underway

2/ It’s going to spill over and make life far more expensive for everyone – all 7.8 billion people

3/ Supply chains are going to get hammered even further than they already are

4/ A true 1970’s style energy crisis, this one a true supply shock (not human-created except by ignorance)

5/ The possibility of a major economic shock is all but certain at this point.

Now, conclusions today.

First, there’s a global energy crunch. It’s underway. It’s got a lot of steam to it. You see China scrambling looking for coal. Europe scrambling for coal. Australia which is nominally a big coal exporter is in deep doo-doo over there. I don’t know what’s going on but that country is tearing itself apart and is not able to do anything but put itself into lockdowns. It’s so rapt up around COVID that I don’t think Australia is going to be a decent participant in upping its exports anytime soon.

So anyway, a global energy crunch is definitely underway. It’s going to spill over and it’s going to make life far more expensive for everyone, especially the poorer people, middle-class people of this world. It’s really going to begin to bite this year. So you’re going to have to take some steps around that. There’s a lot of things you can do about that, but much of it is just limiting your energy use – that’s the number 1 thing.

But supply chains – [conclusion] number 3 on this list – this is what I’m really worried about. The supply chains are already stretched, already fractured and fragmented. They’re going to get hammered.

Energy crises, when the factories area gets shut down because they can’t run the machines properly because of energy shortages, it creates an enormous disruption in the supply chains.

We’re going to have a true 1970s style energy crisis. But this one’s an actual supply shock – the supplies just aren’t there. This is new. This is different. It’s not like we have to convince the Arabs to open the spigots up again, and just be nicer or something. This has nothing to do with that. And, by the way, all very foreseeable, very predictable.

And, oh, by the way, everything the central banks have done to just pour money on top of this situation was going to exacerbate it and make it worse. And they knew that, or should have known that. And that’s something that’s on the central bankers.

Which means, and brings us to the final point [5], which is the possibility of an economic shock. It’s really all but certain at this point in time. And I don’t know any other way we’re going to be able to avoid this. So, every single time I’ve seen an energy price increase in the economic data, it has led to an economic shock. How bad that shock is going to be depends on a number of factors.

But this time we have two things working against us – this is a legitimate supply shock. It’s going to be very hard to undo because we failed to invest in more production because we let go and laid off a lot of the critical workers because it takes time to hire them back because these things all take time and we don’t have time in this story – Winter is coming and we don’t have the natural gas to make it through that winter, so there’s going to be all kinds of shortages.

We’re going to have to imagine that our governments are going to go into triage around this. And we’ve seen how ineffective they’ve been in managing things like – oh, I don’t know – testing for COVID, vaccination logic or illogic, and early treatments or lack thereof.

We’ve seen governments stumble on what I consider to be simple things. How do you think they’re going to be when they have to do an economic triage? They’re going to have to make decisions at the policy level. Who gets natural gas, who doesn’t? Do the factories get it? Or do households get it? Or do they both get pinched a little bit? Or are there certain factories that get it? Which ones do we consider more important? Suddenly, that becomes politics. Politics is never pretty. It’s always ugly and makes poor decisions.

32:46 End of Part 1 of Martenson’s two-part report

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Preview of Part 2

So, Part 2 of this report I’m going to be talking a lot more about this, and the impacts of this, in particular the absolute horror show that our government has become in terms of its ability to triage, make effective decisions – all of that. And this is all going to be a little bit of foreshadowing for a really great interview, coming out later this week, with Peter Boghossian. He’s the Portland State University professor who quit, had to resign because his campus had become an intolerable place of intolerance because of the wokesters*. [*wokesterAn easily offended 20-something idiot who believes the word ‘woke’ legitimizes their self-centered view of the world. These individuals often lack skills in civil discourse, or an educated background in any subject they rant in.]

That whole thing, if you follow the dots along, the people who are trained in that system, the people who become fashioned through that model of thinking, turn out to be extraordinarily ungifted at navigating worlds with real crises and the real predicaments that require real leadership.

We actually have a perfect storm has arrived between real supply shocks, really bad monetary policy, the impact of decades of poor education with a COVID overlay, and all of that is something I’m going to be discussing in Part 2, which you can find at Peak Prosperity.

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