Citizen Action Monitor

Trump brags he has been good for the economy; Nobel laureate says nothing could be further from the truth

Nobel laureate in economics, Joseph Stiglitz, has the evidence to prove he’s right, and that Trump is “BIGLY” wrong.

No 2573 Posted by fw, January 20, 2020 —

Joseph E. Stiglitz

“It is becoming conventional wisdom that US President Donald Trump will be tough to beat in November, because, whatever reservations about him voters may have, he has been good for the American economy. Nothing could be further from the truth. … Today, many corporate bosses are still talking about the continued GDP growth and record stock prices. But neither GDP nor the Dow is a good measure of economic performance. Neither tells us what’s happening to ordinary citizens’ living standards or anything about sustainability. In fact, US economic performance over the past four years is Exhibit A in the indictment against relying on these indicators. … Even judging by GDP, the Trump economy falls short. Last quarter’s growth was just 2.1%, far less than the 4%, 5%, or even 6% Trump promised to deliver, and even less than the 2.4% average of Obama’s second term. That is a remarkably poor performance considering the stimulus provided by the $1 trillion deficit and ultra-low interest rates. This is not an accident, or just a matter of bad luck: Trump’s brand is uncertainty, volatility, and prevarication, whereas trust, stability, and confidence are essential for growth. So is equality, according to the International Monetary Fund. … So, Trump deserves failing grades not just on essential tasks like upholding democracy and preserving our planet. He should not get a pass on the economy, either.”Joseph E. Stiglitz, Information Clearing House

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent.

Here’s some of the evidence Joseph Stiglitz rolls out to counter Trump’s claim that he has been good for the US economy –

  1. Looking at the health and wellbeing of its citizens places America near the bottom of developed countries
  2. America’s rising “deaths of despair” — alcohol, drug overdoses, and suicide
  3. The current state of the US economy is reminiscent of the dismal state of the post-Soviet Russian economy
  4. Trump – Good for the top 1% and 0.01% — Not good for everyone else
  5. Under Trump, the media wage of full-time male workers is more than 3% below what it was 40 years ago
  6. Worse still, the U.S. has suffered more property damage from climate change than any other country
  7. And Trump’s tax cuts triggered record corporate share buybacks, resulting in record peacetime deficits and record net indebtedness in just one year
  8. Trump’s trade wars have increased, not decreased, the US trade deficit
  9. Despite promises to bring back manufacturing jobs remains lower that it was under Obama
  10. The employment rate has increased less than during the Obama recovery
  11. The pace of job creation is also markedly slower than it was under Obama.
  12. The Gross Domestic Product is far less than Trump’s brand of uncertainty, volatility, and prevarication promised to deliver

Given the damning evidence, why do so many working class Americans still support the Trump brand? Are they incapable of independent, critical thinking?

Below is my repost of Joseph Stiglitz’ thumping of Trump’s trumpeting about how good he has been for the US economy. The repost features my added subheadings, text highlighting and some bulletted reformatting. Alternatively, read the article on the Information Clearing House website by clicking on the following linked title.

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The Truth About the Trump Economy by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Information Clearing House, January 18, 2020

It is becoming conventional wisdom that US President Donald Trump will be tough to beat in November, because, whatever reservations about him voters may have, he has been good for the American economy. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Have business elites overcome their infatuation with Trump?

As the world’s business elites trek to Davos for their annual gathering, people should be asking a simple question: Have they overcome their infatuation with US President Donald Trump?

Or are they too busy celebrating his tax cuts for billionaires and corporations?

Two years ago, a few rare corporate leaders were concerned about climate change, or upset at Trump’s misogyny and bigotry. Most, however, were celebrating the president’s tax cuts for billionaires and corporations and looking forward to his efforts to deregulate the economy. That would allow businesses to pollute the air more, get more Americans hooked on opioids, entice more children to eat their diabetes-inducing foods, and engage in the sort of financial shenanigans that brought on the 2008 crisis.

But rising GDP and Dow are misleading measures of US economic performance during Trump’s reign

Today, many corporate bosses are still talking about the continued GDP growth and record stock prices. But neither GDP nor the Dow is a good measure of economic performance. Neither tells us what’s happening to ordinary citizens’ living standards or anything about sustainability. In fact, US economic performance over the past four years is Exhibit A in the indictment against relying on these indicators.

Looking at the health and wellbeing of its citizens places America near the bottom of developed countries

To get a good reading on a country’s economic health, start by looking at the health of its citizens. If they are happy and prosperous, they will be healthy and live longer. Among developed countries, America sits at the bottom in this regard.

  • US life expectancy, already relatively low, fell in each of the first two years of Trump’s presidency,
  • and in 2017, midlife mortality reached its highest rate since World War II.
  • This is not a surprise, because no president has worked harder to make sure that more Americans lack health insurance. Millions have lost their coverage, and the uninsured rate has risen, in just two years, from 10.9% to 13.7%.

America’s rising “deaths of despair” — alcohol, drug overdoses, and suicide

One reason for declining life expectancy in America is what Anne Case and Nobel laureate economist Angus Deaton call deaths of despair, caused by alcohol, drug overdoses, and suicide. In 2017 (the most recent year for which good data are available), such deaths stood at almost four times their 1999 level.

The current state of the US economy is reminiscent of the dismal state of the post-Soviet Russian economy

The only time I have seen anything like these declines in health – outside of war or epidemics – was when I was chief economist of the World Bank and found out that mortality and morbidity data confirmed what our economic indicators suggested about the dismal state of the post-Soviet Russian economy.

Trump – Good for the top 1% and 0.01% — Not good for everyone else

Trump may be a good president for the top 1% – and especially for the top 0.1% – but he has not been good for everyone else. If fully implemented, the 2017 tax cut will result in tax increases for most households in the second, third, and fourth income quintiles.

Under Trump, the media wage of full-time male workers is more than 3% below what it was 40 years ago

Given tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the ultrarich and corporations, it should come as no surprise that there was no significant change in the median US household’s disposable income between 2017 and 2018 (again, the most recent year with good data). The lion’s share of the increase in GDP is also going to those at the top. Real median weekly earnings are just 2.6% above their level when Trump took office. And these increases have not offset long periods of wage stagnation. For example, the median wage of a full-time male worker (and those with full-time jobs are the lucky ones) is still more than 3% below what it was 40 years ago. Nor has there been much progress on reducing racial disparities: in the third quarter of 2019, median weekly earnings for black men working full-time were less than three-quarters the level for white men.

Worse still, the U.S. has suffered more property damage from climate change than any other country

Making matters worse, the growth that has occurred is not environmentally sustainable – and even less so thanks to the Trump administration’s gutting of regulations that have passed stringent cost-benefit analyses. The air will be less breathable, the water less drinkable, and the planet more subject to climate change. In fact, losses related to climate change have already reached new highs in the US, which has suffered more property damage than any other country – reaching some 1.5% of GDP in 2017.

And Trump’s tax cuts triggered record corporate share buybacks, resulting in record peacetime deficits and record net indebtedness in just one year

The tax cuts were supposed to spur a new wave of investment. Instead, they triggered an all-time record binge of share buybacks – some $800 billion in 2018 – by some of America’s most profitable companies, and led to record peacetime deficits (almost $1 trillion in fiscal 2019) in a country supposedly near full employment. And even with weak investment, the US had to borrow massively abroad: the most recent data show foreign borrowing at nearly $500 billion a year, with an increase of more than 10% in America’s net indebtedness position in one year alone.

Trump’s trade wars have increased, not decreased, the US trade deficit

Likewise, Trump’s trade wars, for all their sound and fury, have not reduced the US trade deficit, which was one-quarter higher in 2018 than it was in 2016. The 2018 goods deficit was the largest on record. Even the deficit in trade with China was up almost a quarter from 2016. The US did get a new North American trade agreement, without the investment agreement provisions that the Business Roundtable wanted, without the provisions raising drug prices that the pharmaceutical companies wanted, and with better labor and environmental provisions. Trump, a self-proclaimed master deal maker, lost on almost every front in his negotiations with congressional Democrats, resulting in a slightly improved trade arrangement.

And despite Trump’s vaunted promises to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, the increase in manufacturing employment is still lower than it was under his predecessor, Barack Obama, once the post-2008 recovery set in, and is still markedly below its pre-crisis level. Even the unemployment rate, at a 50-year low, masks economic fragility. The employment rate for working-age males and females, while rising, has increased less than during the Obama recovery, and is still significantly below that of other developed countries. The pace of job creation is also markedly slower than it was under Obama.

Four reasons why the unemployment rate is low

  • Again, the low employment rate is not a surprise, not least because unhealthy people can’t work.
  • Moreover, those on disability benefits, – the US incarceration rate has increased more than sixfold since 1970, with some two million people currently behind bars – or so discouraged that they are not actively seeking jobs are not counted as “unemployed.” But, of course, they are not employed.
  • Nor is it a surprise that a country that doesn’t provide affordable childcare or guarantee family leave would have lower female employment – adjusted for population, more than ten percentage points lower – than other developed countries.

The Gross Domestic Product is far less than Trump’s brand of uncertainty, volatility, and prevarication promised to deliver

Even judging by GDP, the Trump economy falls short. Last quarter’s growth was just 2.1%, far less than the 4%, 5%, or even 6% Trump promised to deliver, and even less than the 2.4% average of Obama’s second term. That is a remarkably poor performance considering the stimulus provided by the $1 trillion deficit and ultra-low interest rates. This is not an accident, or just a matter of bad luck: Trump’s brand is uncertainty, volatility, and prevarication, whereas trust, stability, and confidence are essential for growth. So is equality, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Bottom line – Trump deserves failing grades on the economy, as well as on upholding democracy and preserving planet Earth

So, Trump deserves failing grades not just on essential tasks like upholding democracy and preserving our planet. He should not get a pass on the economy, either.

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