Even with strong emissions mitigation, the world will experience 2.4°C of global warming by 2100.
No 2554 Posted by fw, December 10, 2019 —
For The Real News Network, Dimitri Lascaris spoke this week with Dr. Neil Swart of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCMA). The CCCMA has developed a more sophisticated climate model which predicts that, under a high emissions scenario, we will see 7-8°C of warming by 2100. The model also predicts that, even in a strong emissions mitigation scenario, the world will experience 2.4°C of global heating over pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Reposted below is my embedded You Tube video of Dimitri Lascaris’ interview with Dr. Neil Swart. As well, I have included a partial transcript of the beginning and concluding portion of the interview. The audio quality was not the best.
Alternatively, watch the video on Lascaris’ website (with no transcript) by clicking on the following linked title.
Dimitri Lascaris – The scientific community’s ability to predict levels of future global warming depends critically on the accuracy of their climate models. That’s why climate scientists are constantly working to improve the accuracy of those models.
One of the scientific groups that has been developing a new more sophisticated climate model is the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, or CCCMA. This is an arm of the Canadian Government and among other things it carries out climate modelling experiments coordinated by the World Climate Research Program in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The new climate model being developed by the CCCMA is called the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5). CCCMA has begun to apply its model version 5 to different future emission scenarios and the results are alarming.
0:56 — Now here to discuss this with us is Dr. Neil Swart. Dr. Swart is a research scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
***** Section from 1:06 to 7:50 was not transcribed *****
7:50 – Lascaris … is it in your view, realistic, at this stage, to imagine that we are going to avoid at least 2°C of warming over the pre-industrial period, given the numbers that we’re now seeing from the newer and more sophisticated climate models?
Neil Swart – I would say that, again, that these are just results from one model and there are other models that would be at the lower end of the warming spectrum, so I just want to put that into context, and in addition there are other lines of evidence, as I mentioned earlier, including observations and so on – when you draw on those lines of evidence together, what you can come up with is an estimate of how strong our mitigation activities would have to be – how much we’d have to change our behaviour to reduce our CO2 emissions in order to avoid 1.5°C or 2°C of warming. And what we’re beginning to see is particularly for 1.5°C that would require extremely strong mitigation. For example, if you compare what has been promised currently be governments around the world on the commitments that have been made, these commitments are not sufficient for us to achieve certainly a 1.5°C target, and likely not a 2°C target. They would likely put us on track from something more like 3°C of warming.
Lascaris – Well, we’ve been speaking to Neil Dr. Swart of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis about a new climate model being developed within the Canadian Government.
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