No 1507 Posted by fw, November 11, 2015
Thomas Walkom
“Until Wednesday, all of this had been Stephen Harper’s political problem. Now it belongs to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. During the lead-up to last month’s election, Trudeau walked a fine line. He said he firmly supported the idea of the TPP. But he also said he wanted to see the final text before making a formal decision. Now that he and his trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, have seen it what are they going to do? …. Trudeau has promised a full debate in the Commons. Given that his Liberals hold a majority of seats there, that won’t mean much. If the prime minister wants the deal to go ahead, his MPs are sure to oblige. And it seems he does. Last Saturday, according to Reuters, the Japanese foreign ministry issued a statement saying that Trudeau and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had agreed on the telephone to push the TPP through. Theoretically, the Liberal government could try to renegotiate all or part of the deal. But that would work only if one or more of the 11 other members were willing to take part. Finally, Canada could walk away from the pact, a move that would carry its own costs. We shall see what Trudeau does. He has surprised before. But the odds are that this deal, however bad, is done.” —Thomas Walkom
Toronto Star national affairs columnist Thomas Walkom’s bold prediction that Trudeau will approve the TPP deal is the centrepiece – captured in the above passage — of an otherwise sparse, 704-word article. The rest of the piece covers, by now, familiar ground, summarizing why it’s a bad deal. For a more thorough treatment of TPP’s flaws, see, for example: Canada’s leading TPP watchdog demands “full public consultation” posted on November 8, 2015.
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It’s official. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade and investment deal is bad for Ontario’s crucial auto industry.
In fact, it’s worse than expected.
The 12-nation pact, which ties together countries ranging from Canada and the U.S. to Vietnam and Malaysia, also promises other gloomy outcomes.
Until Wednesday, all of this had been Stephen Harper’s political problem.
Now it belongs to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
During the lead-up to last month’s election, Trudeau walked a fine line.
He said he firmly supported the idea of the TPP.
But he also said he wanted to see the final text before making a formal decision.
Now that he and his trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, have seen it what are they going to do?
Released Thursday, the final text confirms most critics’ fears.
“The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a bad deal for medicine,” said the aid group Doctors Without Borders.
Earlier this fall, the Harper government admitted that the TPP would reduce this local content threshold to 40 per cent. The final text shows that for some crucial auto parts, the new threshold is even lower — 35 per cent.
What this means in practice is that auto makers operating within the TPP will be able to obtain up to 65 per cent of their parts outside the trade bloc — from cheap-labour countries like Thailand.
That’s grim news for workers in Canadian auto parts firms.
So far, Canada’s new government has been coyly supportive of the deal.
Trudeau has promised a full debate in the Commons. Given that his Liberals hold a majority of seats there, that won’t mean much. If the prime minister wants the deal to go ahead, his MPs are sure to oblige.
And it seems he does. Last Saturday, according to Reuters, the Japanese foreign ministry issued a statement saying that Trudeau and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had agreed on the telephone to push the TPP through.
Theoretically, the Liberal government could try to renegotiate all or part of the deal.
But that would work only if one or more of the 11 other members were willing to take part.
Regardless of U.S. presidential contender Hillary Clinton’s 11th-hour conversion into a free-trade critic, there is no indication that any of them is.
Finally, Canada could walk away from the pact, a move that would carry its own costs.
We shall see what Trudeau does. He has surprised before. But the odds are that this deal, however bad, is done.
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